Future Policing: Why Yesterday’s Policing Is Powerless Against Today’s Criminal Networks

Prof. Triveni Singh, Ex-IPS
28 Min Read

The call that dismantled a sophisticated international cryptocurrency ring did not originate in a high-tech situation room in London or a federal field office in Washington. It began in the green, tropical humidity of Kerala, India, where a collaborative experiment known as the “Cyberdome” was quietly rewriting the rules of engagement for law enforcement. An elderly victim, grieving the recent loss of his wife, had been systematically drained of his life savings—over £300,000—by a syndicate operating with the cold, detached efficiency of a Fortune 500 company.

In a previous era, this case would have died in a pile of paperwork. The jurisdiction was murky, the assets were encrypted, and the perpetrators were ghosts hiding behind layers of digital obfuscation. But the Kerala Police had abandoned the traditional siloed approach. Leveraging a public-private partnership that allows ethical hackers and cybersecurity experts to volunteer alongside uniformed officers, they traced the digital exhaust of the stolen Bitcoin through a labyrinth of mixers and tumblers. They located the assets in a wallet hosted by a major exchange, identified the beneficiary as an Israeli national, and achieved what few victims of crypto-fraud ever see: the recovery of their funds.

This victory, however, is a rare flicker of light in a darkening landscape. It represents the potential of the future of policing, but it stands in stark contrast to the overwhelming reality. We are currently witnessing the greatest transfer of wealth in human history, not through trade or innovation, but through theft. By the end of 2025, global cybercrime is projected to cost the world $10.5 trillion annually. To contextualize this figure: if cybercrime were a country, it would boast the world’s third-largest economy, trailing only the United States and China.

The shift is seismic. The beat cop of the 20th century, patrolling physical streets to deter visible crime, is becoming obsolete in the face of an invisible adversary that operates at light speed. The transition from physical enforcement to digital containment—from “beat policing” to “bit policing”—is not merely a technological upgrade; it is a fundamental existential crisis for the state’s monopoly on order. As governments scramble to adopt predictive AI, facial recognition, and integrated fusion centers, they are colliding with archaic legal frameworks and a public increasingly wary of the trade-off between security and privacy.

The following report analyzes the emerging architecture of global and Indian policing. It explores the asymmetric threat of the “Cybercrime-as-a-Service” economy, the controversial rise of the surveillance state, the paralyzing legal bottlenecks of cross-border evidence, and the suggestive frameworks that might allow justice to survive in the digital age.

I. The Asymmetric Threat: Inside the Machine of Industrialized Fraud

The adversary facing modern law enforcement is no longer the disorganized street gang or the isolated grifter. It is a highly professionalized, service-oriented industry that mirrors the legitimate corporate world. The rise of the “Cybercrime-as-a-Service” (CaaS) model has democratized malice, allowing individuals with zero technical expertise to launch devastating attacks by renting infrastructure for pennies on the dollar.

The Democratization of Malice

The barriers to entry for high-stakes crime have collapsed. In the dark corners of the web, the pricing for stolen lives has stabilized into a predictable commodities market. A U.S. social security number can be purchased for as little as $1; a complete identity package, known as “Fullz“—containing name, DOB, and financial data—trades for $20 to $100. A standard credit card dump sells for $10 to $40, while a verified account on a major cryptocurrency exchange like Kraken, essential for laundering stolen funds, can command up to $1,170.

This marketplace is fueled by an incessant velocity of attacks. In 2023, a cyberattack occurred roughly every 39 seconds. By 2025, the sophistication of these attacks is expected to compound due to the integration of Generative AI. Fraud is poised for “unprecedented acceleration,” with AI-driven phishing and deepfakes enabling criminals to bypass traditional authentication measures.

The most potent weapon in this arsenal is Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS). Developers now lease their malware to “affiliates” who conduct the attacks, splitting the profits. While the percentage of victims paying ransoms has dropped—from 85% in 2019 to 23% in 2025—the sheer volume of attacks has surged to compensate. The ecosystem is supported by “Initial Access Brokers” (IABs), specialized contractors who breach corporate networks and sell the “keys” to ransomware gangs. In 2024, IABs listed access to companies with combined revenues exceeding $3 trillion.

The “service” model extends to every facet of the criminal enterprise. Phishing kits, complete with convincing templates for banks and government agencies, can be rented for $250 a month. “Exploit-as-a-Service” providers offer zero-day vulnerabilities to the highest bidder, while “Mule-as-a-Service” networks provide the bank accounts necessary to launder the proceeds. This specialization allows criminal syndicates to operate with a level of efficiency that often outpaces the bureaucratic machinery of law enforcement.

Table 1: The Dark Web Commodities Market (2025 Estimates)

 

Item Price Range (USD) Utility in Crime Source
Social Security Number (US) $1 – $6 Identity Theft, Loan Fraud 5
“Fullz” (Full Identity Pack) $20 – $100+ Total Identity Takeover 5
Credit Card with CVV $10 – $40 Card-Not-Present Fraud 5
High-Limit Credit Card (>$5k) $110 – $120 Big Ticket Purchases 5
Online Bank Login $200 – $1,000+ Account Draining 5
Verified Crypto Account $120 – $1,170 Money Laundering 5
US Passport Scan ~$100 International Travel Fraud 5
Corporate Network Access $1,000 – $10,000+ Ransomware Deployment 5

The Infrastructure of Impunity: Bulletproof Hosting

The bedrock of this shadow economy is “Bulletproof Hosting” (BPH). Unlike legitimate service providers like Amazon Web Services or GoDaddy, which comply with law enforcement takedown requests, BPH providers explicitly market themselves as safe havens for criminality. They operate in jurisdictions with lax cyber laws or actively ignore subpoenas, allowing botnets, phishing sites, and command-and-control servers to operate with impunity.

This infrastructure is resilient. When the UK’s National Crime Agency (NCA) and international allies sanctioned a prolific Russian hosting service known as “Smart” (or “Weal”), they revealed how these entities support groups like LockBit and Evil Corp. BPH providers use “fast flux” techniques, rapidly changing IP addresses and leveraging legitimate networks to mask their location, making them incredibly difficult to pin down. They are the landlords of the digital underworld, and without dismantling them, policing the internet is akin to sweeping back the tide.

The mechanics of BPH are designed to frustrate investigation. Providers often resell infrastructure from legitimate data centers, effectively hiding in plain sight. They accept payment in cryptocurrencies to break the financial trail and cycle through Autonomous System Numbers (ASNs) to evade IP blocking.7 This “whack-a-mole” dynamic means that even when a malicious site is identified, it can migrate to a new IP address within seconds, leaving investigators with a dead link and a cold trail.

The Indian Surge: A Digital Epidemic

Nowhere is the impact of this digital onslaught more visible than in India. As the world’s most populous nation rapidly digitizes, it has become a primary target. In 2024, India witnessed a shocking 206% year-on-year increase in financial fraud losses, totaling ₹22,845 crore (approximately $2.7 billion). The number of reported cybersecurity incidents in the country more than doubled from 10.29 lakh in 2022 to 22.68 lakh in 2024.

This explosion is not just a function of volume but of variety. From “digital arrest” scams where fraudsters pose as law enforcement officers on video calls, to investment fraud involving deepfake endorsements, the Indian citizen is under siege. The banking system alone lost ₹36,014 crore to fraud in FY 2024-25, a spike attributed largely to legacy loan scams but increasingly driven by digital vectors. The threat is so pervasive that the Indian government has had to block over 9.42 lakh SIM cards and 2.63 lakh IMEI numbers linked to fraudulent activities.

The human cost of this epidemic is staggering. In one case, a retired individual lost their life savings to a “pig butchering” scam—a long-con investment fraud where the victim is groomed over months. In another, deepfake videos of prominent business leaders were used to lure investors into fake IPOs. The attackers leverage AI-powered social engineering tricks, analyzing the victim’s online behavior to tailor the perfect pitch. This personalized, automated targeting represents a new frontier in psychological warfare against the civilian population.

Table 2: The Escalating Cost of Cybercrime (Global vs. India)

 

Metric 2024 Statistic 2025 Projection/Trend Source
Global Annual Cost $10.5 Trillion 3
Global Attack Frequency Every 39 seconds Increasing Velocity 4
India Financial Fraud Losses ₹22,845 Crore >200% Increase Trend 11
India Cyber Incidents 22.68 Lakh Continuing Surge 12
Avg. Cost of Data Breach (US) $10.22 Million Rising due to Regs 6

II. The Digital Panopticon: Surveillance, Prediction, and the Techlash

To counter a decentralized, automated threat, law enforcement agencies are attempting to pivot from reactive investigation to proactive, data-driven prevention. The future of policing is being built on a “Tech Stack” that layers artificial intelligence, biometric surveillance, and centralized intelligence fusion atop the traditional police station. But as the state acquires god-like powers of observation, the social contract of policing is being rewritten, sparking a global “techlash.”

The Fusion Center Model: Converging Intelligence

The era of the isolated detective is over. The new standard is the “Fusion Center”—a centralized hub that aggregates data from disparate sources (social media, traffic cameras, financial transaction reports, dark web monitoring) to create a real-time operational picture. The philosophy behind these centers is “convergence”: the recognition that cyber fraud, money laundering, and physical security are no longer distinct domains but part of a single continuum.

In India, this is epitomized by the Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre (I4C). Established by the Ministry of Home Affairs, I4C operates as the nervous system for the country’s cyber defense. It is not merely an administrative body but an operational one, housing the “Pratibimb” module, which maps the geographic location of cybercriminals and their infrastructure. This tool alone has assisted in over 10,000 arrests by providing actionable visibility to state police forces.

I4C represents a shift towards “platform-based policing.” Its National Cyber Crime Reporting Portal allows citizens to report crimes directly, feeding a central database that uses AI to identify interstate linkages. The 1930 Helpline, a financial fraud reporting mechanism, freezes funds in real-time, preventing the “siphoning off” of money through mule accounts. By late 2024, this system had saved over ₹5,489 crore. The success of I4C highlights the critical role of data integration in combating a fragmented threat landscape.

The Predictive Pivot: Encoding the Future

Beyond coordination, agencies are investing heavily in Predictive Policing. This technology uses historical crime data and machine learning algorithms to forecast where crimes are likely to occur and who might commit them. The global market for AI in predictive policing is expected to reach $5.6 billion by 2025, growing at a staggering CAGR of 48.6%.

In India, tools like the Crime Mapping Analytics and Predictive System (CMAPS) in Delhi are used to identify hotspots and deploy resources dynamically. The logic is seductive: if Amazon can predict what you will buy next, the police should be able to predict where a burglary will happen. These systems utilize “spatio-temporal” analysis, correlating time and location data to optimize patrols.

However, the reliance on historical data carries the profound risk of encoding past biases into the future of law enforcement. Critics argue that if an algorithm is trained on arrest records that reflect over-policing of certain communities—such as the “denotified tribes” in India or minority neighborhoods in the West—it will direct more patrols to those areas, leading to more arrests, and “confirming” the bias. This feedback loop creates a veneer of objectivity over systemic discrimination, making it harder to challenge in court.

The Surveillance City: Hyderabad and the Privacy Battle

The physical environment is being blanketed in sensors. The modern policing architecture is a “layered security” model. It begins with License Plate Recognition (LPR) cameras that track vehicle movements, moves to audio detection systems (like ShotSpotter) that triangulate gunshots, and integrates video analytics that can flag “suspicious behavior” in real-time.

Hyderabad has emerged as the epicenter of this debate in India. Often cited as one of the most surveilled cities in the world, it hosts a Command and Control Centre (CCC) capable of processing feeds from over 600,000 CCTV cameras. Police officers are equipped with tablets running facial recognition software, allowing them to scan pedestrians in real-time.

This capability was challenged in a landmark lawsuit by activist S.Q. Masood, who was stopped and photographed by police during the COVID-19 lockdown without explanation. His petition argues that such “roving surveillance” lacks a specific legal basis and violates the fundamental right to privacy affirmed by the Supreme Court in the Puttaswamy judgment. The police argue the technology is a deterrent and a force multiplier for an under-staffed force.

The tension is palpable. The Project Panoptic, an initiative by the Internet Freedom Foundation, tracks the deployment of these systems and has raised alarms about the lack of legislative oversight. Without a dedicated law regulating facial recognition, citizens have little recourse against misuse. The “techlash” is not just about privacy; it is about power. As the state gains the ability to track every movement, the balance between liberty and security tilts precariously.

The Deepfake Dilemma

The technology is also weaponizing reality itself. The proliferation of deepfakes poses a dual threat: it facilitates fraud (impersonating a CEO to authorize a transfer) and erodes trust in evidence. A video of a crime can now be fabricated; a confession can be synthesized.

Indian law enforcement is scrambling to acquire detection capabilities. The Ministry of Electronics and IT (MeitY) has launched projects under the IndiaAI Mission to develop indigenous deepfake detection tools, selecting institutes like IIT Madras and IIT Jodhpur to build “governance frameworks” for synthetic media. However, the legal admissibility of deepfake detection analysis is still an untested frontier in Indian courts. The race between generation and detection is an infinite game, one where the police are perpetually playing catch-up.

III. The Broken Borders of Justice: The Jurisdiction Paradox

While the technology of crime and policing accelerates at the speed of Moore’s Law, the legal frameworks governing them are stuck in the age of the steamship. This disconnect creates what can be termed the “Jurisdiction Paradox”: the more interconnected the world becomes, the harder it is to enforce the law.

The MLAT Quagmire

The central bottleneck in global cyber investigations is the Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty (MLAT). When an Indian citizen is defrauded via a server hosted in the United States or a social media platform headquartered in California, Indian police cannot simply demand the data. They must file a request through the Ministry of Home Affairs, which transmits it to the U.S. Department of Justice, which then reviews it for compliance with U.S. law (specifically the Electronic Communications Privacy Act, or ECPA) before obtaining a court order to serve on the company.

This process is agonizingly slow. The average time to complete an MLAT request between India and the U.S. is estimated at three years and four months. In a digital investigation, where data logs are often overwritten within weeks and IP addresses change in seconds, a three-year delay is effectively a denial of justice.

The friction is not just bureaucratic; it is structural. U.S. laws distinguish between “subscriber information” (metadata) and “content” (the actual message). Foreign agencies often struggle to meet the “probable cause” standard required by U.S. courts for content data, leading to rejected requests. The handwritten notes from police planners explicitly call for “MLAT/LOR needs to be online mode,” reflecting the frustration of investigators who watch leads go cold while paperwork travels by diplomatic pouch.

The Admissibility Challenge: Section 65B

Even when data is obtained, admitting it in Indian courts remains a challenge. Section 65B of the Indian Evidence Act (recently transitioned under the Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam) mandates a certificate to prove the authenticity of electronic records. The Supreme Court, in landmark judgments like Anvar P.V. v. P.K. Basheer, clarified that secondary electronic evidence is inadmissible without this certification.

However, obtaining a 65B certificate from a foreign server administrator (e.g., Facebook or Google) is legally complex. While recent provisions allow for expert certification, the chain of custody remains a primary target for defense attorneys. The physical integrity of the device, the hashing of forensic images, and the prevention of tampering are rigorous standards that many local police stations are ill-equipped to meet. The shift to cloud storage further complicates this, as the “original” device is a virtual partition in a server farm thousands of miles away.

Data Protection and Law Enforcement Exemptions

Complicating this landscape is the Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Act, 2023. While it introduces a robust framework for privacy, granting citizens rights to correct and erase data, it includes significant exemptions for law enforcement. The central government can exempt agencies from the Act in the interests of “sovereignty and integrity of India” or “public order.”

Critics argue that these broad exemptions, combined with the lack of independent oversight for the Data Protection Board, create a “surveillance carte blanche.” The Act allows the state to process data for crime prevention without consent, which is necessary for policing but raises concerns about the lack of procedural safeguards. The tension is palpable: how does a democracy empower its police to catch terrorists without creating a legal framework that allows for the unchecked monitoring of dissidents?

Table 3: The Legal Lag – Technology vs. Process

Component Speed/Capacity Constraint
Cyber Attack Milliseconds Automated scripts & AI bots
Data Traceability Minutes to Days Logs often overwritten/deleted quickly
MLAT Request ~3 Years (India-US) Diplomatic & Judicial review layers
Evidence Admissibility High Burden Strict certification (Sec 65B) required
Jurisdiction Borderless Strictly defined by national borders

IV. The Suggestive Framework: Convergence, Resilience, and the 2047 Vision

As India looks toward 2047—the centenary of its independence—the “Roadmap for Policing” unveiled by the Prime Minister emphasizes a transition to a “SMART” force (Strict and Sensitive, Modern and Mobile, Alert and Accountable, Reliable and Responsive, Techno-savvy and Trained). The challenge is to translate this acronym into a functional operational reality.

To bridge the chasm between the $10.5 trillion threat and the current capabilities, a suggestive framework for the future of policing must rest on four pillars:

1. Integrated Intelligence Architecture: Breaking the Silos

The siloed model of policing must be fully dismantled. The success of the I4C and Kerala Cyberdome proves that fusion centers work. The future framework requires a “whole-of-government” data lake where financial, telecom, and travel data are accessible to investigators in real-time.

This “Cyber Fusion Center” model should not just aggregate data but actively hunt for threats. Using AI to analyze patterns across datasets—for example, correlating a spike in small-value UPI transactions with a specific geographic location—can identify fraud rings before they scale. The “Pratibimb” tool is a prototype of this capability, but it needs to be expanded to include international threat intelligence feeds.

2. Sovereign & Secure Tech Stack: Atmanirbhar Forensics

India cannot rely on black-box algorithms from abroad for its internal security. The push for indigenous forensic tools is critical. The Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) has already developed a suite of tools like CyberCheck (disk forensics), MobileCheck (smartphone extraction), and Advik (CDR analysis).

Expanding this “sovereign stack” is essential to avoid supply chain risks. As policing becomes more dependent on AI, using foreign models introduces the risk of “adversarial AI” attacks or hidden backdoors. The IndiaAI Mission must prioritize the development of “Secure by Design” tools for law enforcement, ensuring that the smart cities of 2047 are resilient to the cyber-kinetic attacks of tomorrow.

3. Public-Private Synergy: The New Workforce

The police cannot fight the digital war alone. The Kerala Cyberdome model—where ethical hackers, IT professionals, and citizens volunteer their expertise—should be replicated nationally. This addresses the chronic “skills gap” in law enforcement. Police salaries cannot compete with the private sector, but a volunteer corps allows the state to tap into high-level talent for specific missions.

This “Multifunctional Team” approach, as noted in strategic planning documents, brings together police officers, data scientists, psychologists, and legal experts. It transforms the police force from a closed hierarchy into an open platform, capable of adapting to new threats faster than any bureaucracy.

The legal framework must become as agile as the criminals. The MLAT process needs to be bypassed for routine data requests. Executive Agreements under the U.S. CLOUD Act could allow Indian law enforcement to request data directly from U.S. service providers, cutting the wait time from years to weeks.

Simultaneously, to maintain public trust, the use of invasive technology must be governed by strict, transparent laws. Algorithmic Impact Assessments should be mandatory before deploying any predictive policing or facial recognition tool. Independent oversight bodies must have the power to audit surveillance data and ensure it is not being misused. The future of policing relies on a new social contract: the citizen yields data to the state for security, but the state must prove, every day, that it is worthy of that trust.

Table 4: India’s Security Budget Allocations (2025-26)

 

Sector/Entity Allocation (₹ Crore) Focus Area Source
Ministry of Home Affairs 2,33,210.68 Overall Internal Security 39
Police Modernization 4,069.24 Tech Upgrades, Infrastructure 39
Border Infrastructure 5,597.25 Smart Fencing, Surveillance 39
Cyber Crime (I4C, etc.) ~415.86 (Project Cost) Digital Fraud, Coordination 40
Women’s Safety (Nirbhaya) 960.12 CCTV, Helplines 41
Delhi Police 12,259.16 Capital Security, Traffic Tech 41

Conclusion: The Guardian in the Machine

The future of policing will not be defined by the number of boots on the ground, but by the integrity of the bytes in the cloud. As the line between the physical and digital worlds evaporates, the police must become the guardians of a new, invisible frontier.

The challenge is no longer just to catch the criminal; it is to preserve the freedoms of the society they are sworn to protect, even as they build the machinery to watch it. From the hum of the server rooms in Kerala’s Cyberdome to the courtrooms of Hyderabad where the right to privacy is being litigated, the parameters of this new age are being drawn. The “Infinite Beat” is here, and walking it requires not just technology, but wisdom.

Author: Prof. Triveni Singh, Former IPS Officer and Renowned Cybercrime Investigation Expert

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