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NEW DELHI: The global cryptocurrency market has suffered a steep contraction in 2026, shedding approximately 45 lakh crore rupees in total capitalization since the turn of the year. The market sell-off accelerated sharply through October, which alone accounted for a reduction of nearly 31.96 lakh crore rupees in total asset value. Bitcoin, the sector’s benchmark asset, has retreated by nearly 12 percent over the same ten-month period, dropping from an opening level of about 87,848 dollars to trade near 77,424 dollars by October 31. Market participants are now focusing attention on the upcoming United States midterm elections on November 3, anticipating that the political outcome could reshape regulatory enforcement and the legislative pathway for digital assets.
Data from CoinGecko’s third-quarter assessment placed total market valuation at approximately 2.96 trillion dollars as of late September, before heavy liquidation pushed aggregate valuation down from 2.94 trillion dollars on October 1 to roughly 2.60 trillion dollars by month’s end. The monthly loss of nearly 340 billion dollars pushed total year-to-date losses to around 480 billion dollars, or roughly 45 lakh crore rupees. Analysts note that these macro figures describe aggregate industry capitalization shifts rather than uniform losses across portfolios, as actual financial outcomes remain contingent on individual acquisition points, volume, and trade execution times.
Sharp Retraction Across Major Tokens and Leveraged Portfolios
The decline in Bitcoin’s nominal price represents a loss of roughly 10,424 dollars per unit, translating to about 9.8 lakh rupees per token at an exchange rate of 94 rupees per dollar. The broader weakness extended across leading alternative digital assets throughout October, with Ethereum retreating by roughly 21.7 percent and Solana falling by around 25.8 percent over the course of the month.
The pronounced price movements triggered substantial distress in leveraged derivatives markets, leading to the liquidation of approximately 6.22 billion dollars in crypto futures contracts. Forced liquidations happen when exchange platforms automatically close margin positions after losses erode collateral below mandatory maintenance thresholds. These mandatory market orders eliminated considerable trader capital and contributed to cascading sell orders across digital trading platforms.
Legislative Uncertainties Surrounding the US Midterm Polls
Market attention has shifted toward the United States midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, where all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be decided. The balance of power will determine congressional oversight and legislative priorities for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s administration.
Investors are monitoring key digital asset policies, including the pending CLARITY Act in the Senate, which seeks to clarify market boundaries and specify jurisdictional lines between competing federal regulators. A shift in party control in either chamber could alter committee assignments and the speed of legislative deliberations, though market analysts observe that congressional changes do not automatically foreshadow sweeping bans or immediate reversals of established administrative policies. According to prediction market estimates cited in an October 26 report, probabilities pointed to a greater than 90 percent chance of Democrats capturing the House of Representatives and an estimated 64 percent likelihood of winning the Senate.
Historical Precedents and Post-Election Scenarios
Market participants continue to evaluate potential post-election trends, drawing comparisons to historical performance following past midterm voting cycles. Historical assessments show post-midterm declines in Bitcoin prices of 72 percent in 2010, 65 percent in 2014, 52 percent in 2018, and 27 percent in 2022. Analysts emphasize that historical pullbacks do not serve as reliable predictors for 2026, as prevailing macroeconomic conditions, risk sentiment, and interest rate environments differ substantially from earlier periods.
Illustrative projections suggest that if the end-of-October market valuation of 2.60 trillion dollars were to decline by an additional 5.7 percent, digital asset values would decrease by another 148 billion dollars, equating to roughly 13.9 lakh crore rupees. Investors remain focused on the interplay between election results, regulatory shifts, and fundamental market liquidity in the coming weeks.
